Live calculator
Change any field and the results below update in real time. Defaults model a typical €100 slot bonus at 35x wagering on a 96% RTP game.
How this calculator works
A casino bonus is only worth claiming if the money you expect to keep after clearing the wagering is bigger than zero. This tool walks that chain of maths for you.
First it decides the base wager. If the terms are "bonus only" wagering, you multiply the bonus by the multiplier. If they are "deposit + bonus", you multiply the sum of both. A €100 bonus at 35x "bonus only" turns into a €3,500 wager, while the same bonus plus a €100 deposit at 35x "deposit + bonus" demands €7,000.
Next, game contribution scales that wager. If you clear it on slots at 100% contribution, the effective wager stays the same. If you clear it on a game that contributes 20%, each spin counts for only a fifth of its stake, so you need five times the turnover to finish. We divide the total wager by the contribution percentage to get the effective wager, which is the real volume of money that has to pass through the game.
The house edge is simply 1 minus the game RTP. A 96% RTP game has a 4% house edge, so for every euro wagered the operator expects to keep about 4 cents on average. Multiplying the effective wager by the edge gives the expected house take, a long-run average rather than a guarantee. Net value is the bonus minus that expected take: if the bonus is bigger than the expected cost of clearing it, the offer is positive EV.
A few pitfalls to keep in mind. First, max bet rules. Nearly every bonus caps per-spin stakes at €5 or €10 while the wagering is active, and a single oversized stake voids the lot. This tool shows your cap but assumes you respect it. Second, game weighting. A single bonus often lets you play slots at 100% and table games at 10%, but switching mid-wager can be forbidden. Third, time limits, country restrictions and sticky versus non-sticky mechanics change the real value too, so treat this EV as a planning estimate, not a promise.
Worked example
Scenario: a €100 bonus, 35x wagering on bonus only, slots at 100% contribution, 96% RTP, €5 max bet. Here is how the numbers land.
| Step | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Base wager | Bonus only, so just €100 | €100.00 |
| Total wager required | €100 x 35 | €3,500.00 |
| Effective wager | €3,500 / 1.00 contribution | €3,500.00 |
| House edge | 1 - 0.96 RTP | 4.00% |
| Expected house take | €3,500 x 4% | €140.00 |
| Net expected value | €100 bonus - €140 take | -€40.00 |
| Verdict | Negative value | Pass |
In that scenario the expected cost of clearing the bonus is bigger than the bonus itself, so on average you would lose about €40 trying to turn it into withdrawable cash. The same bonus at 20x on a 97% RTP game would flip to positive territory, which is why the exact terms matter so much.
FAQ
Why does a positive-value bonus even exist?
Operators run positive EV bonuses as a loss leader for first deposits, trusting that most players will keep playing after the bonus is cleared and give back more than the welcome offer cost. A handful of reload and VIP offers are also positive on paper. For the player, the EV is still only an average: variance can and does run against you even on a positive expectation offer, so stake responsibly and treat net EV as a long-run figure.
Is max bet included in this maths?
No. The EV calculation assumes you clear the wagering legally, meaning every stake stays under the max bet cap. If you breach the cap the bonus and any winnings are usually confiscated, which turns any positive EV into a total loss. The cap is displayed in the results panel so you remember it, but it does not change the expected-loss figure.
What if my game contribution is mixed?
Pick the lowest contribution you expect to use for most of the wagering, since that is what drives the effective turnover. If you plan to clear 80% of it on slots and 20% on blackjack, modelling it at 100% will overstate the value. Running the numbers twice, once per game type, and splitting the bonus between them is a safer approach.
Are no-wager bonuses handled by this tool?
Set the wager multiplier to 0 and the total wager drops to zero, which makes expected losses zero and net value equal to the full bonus. That is the correct answer for a true no-wager offer. Watch out for soft wagering rules dressed up as "no wager", such as a 1x deposit requirement before withdrawal, which this tool does not model.
What RTP should I plug in?
Use the published RTP of the specific slot or table game you will clear on. Most modern slots sit between 94% and 97%, European roulette lands near 97.3%, and blackjack with basic strategy can touch 99.5%. If you do not know the exact figure, 96% is a reasonable slot default and lines up with the industry average.
Does this account for cashback or sticky versus non-sticky bonus mechanics?
Not directly. The calculator treats the bonus as pure extra bankroll. A sticky bonus (one you cannot withdraw, only play with) is slightly less valuable than this tool suggests, since you only keep winnings above the sticky amount. A non-sticky bonus with proper separation from the real-money balance is slightly more valuable because you can abandon a losing wager run. Treat the EV as a central estimate.
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